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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 57

Minnesota Vikings 17 – Buffalo Bills 27

What Actually Happened

(9:02) 17-K.Osborn right end to MIN 45 for 2 yards (39-C.Lewis).

The Three Options

GO +0.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.74 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 57, worth -3.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 17, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model