Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 18 at the 73

Minnesota Vikings 23 – Buffalo Bills 27

(2:00) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 18-J.Jefferson to BUF 41 for 32 yards (39-C.Lewis).

The Three Options

GO -1.44 EP

What Happened

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.61 EP
73% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 73, worth -2.55 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.58 EP