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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 1

Minnesota Vikings 23 – Buffalo Bills 27

What Actually Happened

(:50) 8-K.Cousins up the middle to BUF 1 for no gain (90-S.Lawson). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

The Three Options

GO +4.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.45 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 1, worth +0.06 EP
KICK +2.47 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.51 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -0.34 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model