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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 26

Washington Commanders 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(10:04) 6-J.Slye 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.47 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.28 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26, worth -1.60 EP
KICK +0.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.40 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 36, worth -2.22 EP
PUNT -0.67 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model