Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- PHI offense: +0.149 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
- WAS offense: -0.101 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
- QB edge to PHI: Jalen Hurts (PHI) +0.147 vs Taylor Heinicke (WAS) -0.100 EPA/dropback
- PHI defense: -0.090 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
- PHI on 3 more days rest than WAS
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 10
WAS
PHI
Pulled fresh for 2022 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 22 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 12:26 TD PHI (12:26) (No Huddle) 1-J.Hurts up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 0 – PHI 6
- Q1 05:03 TD WAS (5:03) (Shotgun) 24-A.Gibson right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 6 – PHI 7
- Q1 01:33 TD PHI (1:33) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short middle to 88-D.Goedert for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 7 – PHI 13
- Q2 10:04 FG WAS (10:04) 6-J.Slye 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 10 – PHI 14
- Q2 01:44 TD WAS (1:44) (Shotgun) 8-B.Robinson left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 16 – PHI 14
- Q2 00:02 FG WAS (:02) 6-J.Slye 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 20 – PHI 14
- Q3 05:17 FG WAS (5:17) 6-J.Slye 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 23 – PHI 14
- Q4 15:00 TD PHI (15:00) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 6-D.Smith for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 23 – PHI 20
- Q4 07:38 FG WAS (7:38) 6-J.Slye 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 26 – PHI 21
- Q4 00:05 TD WAS (:05) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 16-Q.Watkins to PHI 15 for 5 yards. Lateral to 6-D.Smith to PHI 5 for -10 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by WAS-95-C.Toohill at PHI 1. 95-C.Toohill for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 32 – PHI 21
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q2 WAS 4th & 6 at the 26Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 84%
(10:04) 6-J.Slye 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.
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Q2 WAS 4th & 1 at the 16Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 64% p(FG) 94%
(2:26) 10-C.Samuel right tackle to PHI 14 for 2 yards (43-K.White, 57-T.Edwards).
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Q2 PHI 4th & 5 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49%
(1:12) 8-A.Siposs punts 40 yards to WAS 30, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 15-D.Milne.
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Q3 PHI 4th & 3 at the 68Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EPp(convert) 57%
(13:43) 8-A.Siposs punts 48 yards to WAS 20, Center-45-R.Lovato, out of bounds.
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Q3 WAS 4th & 14 at the 14Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 22% p(FG) 95%
(5:17) 6-J.Slye 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.
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Q4 WAS 4th & 12 at the 36Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 65%
(7:38) 6-J.Slye 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.
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Q4 WAS 4th & 2 at the 65 late-gameChose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EPp(convert) 58%
(3:36) 5-T.Way punts 50 yards to PHI 15, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 18-B.Covey to PHI 20 for 5 yards (35-P.Butler).
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Q4 PHI 4th & 18 at the 88 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(2:08) 8-A.Siposs punts 53 yards to WAS 35, Center-45-R.Lovato. 15-D.Milne to WAS 47 for 12 yards (48-P.Johnson, 45-R.Lovato).
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Q4 WAS 4th & 10 at the 47 late-gameChose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.87 EPp(convert) 30% p(FG) 37%
(:11) 5-T.Way punts 37 yards to PHI 10, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.