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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 16

Washington Commanders 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(2:26) 10-C.Samuel right tackle to PHI 14 for 2 yards (43-K.White, 57-T.Edwards).

The Three Options

GO +2.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.74 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 16, worth -0.88 EP
KICK +1.41 EP
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26, worth -1.49 EP
PUNT -0.73 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model