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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 12 at the 36

Washington Commanders 23 – Philadelphia Eagles 21

What Actually Happened

(7:38) 6-J.Slye 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.38 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 36, worth -1.70 EP
KICK +0.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 46, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model