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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 65

Washington Commanders 26 – Philadelphia Eagles 21

What Actually Happened

(3:36) 5-T.Way punts 50 yards to PHI 15, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 18-B.Covey to PHI 20 for 5 yards (35-P.Butler).

The Three Options

GO -0.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.43 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 65, worth -2.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 23, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP