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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 18 at the 88

Philadelphia Eagles 21 – Washington Commanders 26

What Actually Happened

(2:08) 8-A.Siposs punts 53 yards to WAS 35, Center-45-R.Lovato. 15-D.Milne to WAS 47 for 12 yards (48-P.Johnson, 45-R.Lovato).

The Three Options

GO -2.91 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.14 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 88, worth -4.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -1.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 46, worth -1.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model