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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 10 at the 47

Washington Commanders 26 – Philadelphia Eagles 21

What Actually Happened

(:11) 5-T.Way punts 37 yards to PHI 10, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +0.63 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 47, worth -0.29 EP
KICK +0.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -0.31 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 13, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.87 EP