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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 18 at the 52

Carolina Panthers 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(3:49) 10-J.Hekker punts 42 yards to BAL 10, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-52-J.Iyiegbuniwe.

The Three Options

GO -1.39 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.38 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 52, worth -2.89 EP
KICK -1.56 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.82 EP
PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 15, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model