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Carolina Panthers

HC Steve Wilks
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BAL Home

Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
Sunday 2022-11-20 · 13:00 M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore US ☀️ Clear Spread 13.0 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

CAR
27.3%
BAL
72.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CAR offense: -0.118 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • BAL offense: +0.087 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • QB edge to BAL: Lamar Jackson (BAL) -0.006 vs Phillip Walker (CAR) -0.195 EPA/dropback
  • BAL defense: +0.075 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • BAL on 3 more days rest than CAR

Predicted Final Score

CAR 19
–
BAL 26
Projected margin: BAL by 7 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

CAR

Juston Burris S Out Illness
Matt Ioannidis DT Out Calf
Phillip Walker QB Out Ankle
Myles Hartsfield S Doubtful Ankle
Jaycee Horn CB Questionable Foot
Giovanni Ricci TE Questionable Neck

BAL

Jalyn Armour-Davis CB Doubtful Hip
Lamar Jackson QB Questionable Illness
Mark Andrews TE Questionable Knee
Gus Edwards RB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CAR 3
–
BAL 13

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 29 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 00:05 FG BAL (:05) 9-J.Tucker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. CAR 0 – BAL 3
  • Q3 08:11 FG CAR (8:11) 4-E.Pineiro 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. CAR 3 – BAL 3
  • Q4 08:31 FG BAL (8:31) 9-J.Tucker 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. CAR 3 – BAL 6
  • Q4 07:20 TD BAL (7:20) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 3 – BAL 12

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 8 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 50%

    (12:37) 11-J.Stout punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-46-N.Moore, Touchback.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 9 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (7:35) 10-J.Hekker punts 39 yards to BAL 17, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 14 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (5:31) 11-J.Stout punts 52 yards to CAR 35, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-53-D.Phillips. PENALTY on CAR-50-C.Wooten, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 35.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (3:52) 10-J.Hekker punts 41 yards to BAL 29, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 2 at the 45
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP
    p(convert) 61% p(FG) 45%

    (15:00) 11-J.Stout punts 28 yards to CAR 17, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 12-S.Smith.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 4 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (12:46) 10-J.Hekker punts 48 yards to BAL 29, Center-44-J.Jansen. 13-D.Duvernay to BAL 34 for 5 yards (52-J.Iyiegbuniwe). PENALTY on CAR-20-R.Blackshear, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at BAL 34.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 18 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 28%

    (3:49) 10-J.Hekker punts 42 yards to BAL 10, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-52-J.Iyiegbuniwe.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 10 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 95%

    (:05) 9-J.Tucker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 6 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (13:55) 10-J.Hekker punts 53 yards to BAL 12, Center-44-J.Jansen. 13-D.Duvernay pushed ob at BAL 16 for 4 yards (42-S.Franklin). PENALTY on BAL-14-K.Hamilton, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at BAL 12.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 9 at the 93
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (11:33) 11-J.Stout punts 44 yards to CAR 49, Center-46-N.Moore. 12-S.Smith to CAR 46 for -3 yards (40-M.Harrison).

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 9 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 95%

    (8:11) 4-E.Pineiro 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 9 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (:33) 10-J.Hekker punts 42 yards to BAL 14, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 4 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 92%

    (8:31) 9-J.Tucker 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 7 at the 57
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 38%

    (5:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at CAR 35 for -8 yards (4-J.Pierre-Paul).

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 15 at the 40 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.49 EP
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 58%

    (4:37) 11-J.Stout punts 27 yards to CAR 13, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 12-S.Smith.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 10 at the 41 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.78 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 56%

    (2:00) 11-J.Stout punts 22 yards to CAR 19, Center-46-N.Moore. 12-S.Smith MUFFS catch, and recovers at CAR 19.