Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 6 at the 65

Carolina Panthers 0 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(13:55) 10-J.Hekker punts 53 yards to BAL 12, Center-44-J.Jansen. 13-D.Duvernay pushed ob at BAL 16 for 4 yards (42-S.Franklin). PENALTY on BAL-14-K.Hamilton, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at BAL 12.

The Three Options

GO -1.38 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.11 EP
58% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 65, worth -3.86 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model