Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 9 at the 93

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Carolina Panthers 0

(11:33) 11-J.Stout punts 44 yards to CAR 49, Center-46-N.Moore. 12-S.Smith to CAR 46 for -3 yards (40-M.Harrison).

The Three Options

GO -2.81 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.80 EP
58% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 93, worth -5.39 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model