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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 8 at the 43

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:37) 11-J.Stout punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-46-N.Moore, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +4.03 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 43, worth -1.94 EP
KICK -0.09 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.57 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 12, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model