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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 9 at the 14

Carolina Panthers 0 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(8:11) 4-E.Pineiro 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.41 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.78 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 14, worth -0.41 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24, worth -1.16 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model