Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 9 at the 56

Carolina Panthers 3 – Baltimore Ravens 3

(:33) 10-J.Hekker punts 42 yards to BAL 14, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

The Three Options

GO -1.00 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.85 EP
66% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 56, worth -2.99 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model