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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 10 at the 41

Baltimore Ravens 13 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 11-J.Stout punts 22 yards to CAR 19, Center-46-N.Moore. 12-S.Smith MUFFS catch, and recovers at CAR 19.

The Three Options

GO -0.78 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +0.97 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 41, worth -1.66 EP
KICK +0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.05 EP
PUNT -0.72 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.78 EP