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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 5 at the 70

Carolina Panthers 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(3:52) 10-J.Hekker punts 41 yards to BAL 29, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

The Three Options

GO -1.80 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.04 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 70, worth -4.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 28, worth -1.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model