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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 4 at the 77

Carolina Panthers 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(12:46) 10-J.Hekker punts 48 yards to BAL 29, Center-44-J.Jansen. 13-D.Duvernay to BAL 34 for 5 yards (52-J.Iyiegbuniwe). PENALTY on CAR-20-R.Blackshear, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at BAL 34.

The Three Options

GO -2.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.51 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 77, worth -4.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -2.10 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 34, worth -2.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model