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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 22

Atlanta Falcons 14 – Chicago Bears 17

What Actually Happened

(:03) 7-Y.Koo 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.87 EP
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +2.70 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 22, worth -0.00 EP
KICK +2.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 32, worth -0.06 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model