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Chicago Bears

HC Matt Eberflus
@
ATL Home

Atlanta Falcons

HC Arthur Smith
Sunday 2022-11-20 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.0 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

CHI
39.6%
ATL
60.4%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Justin Fields (CHI): -0.150 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • ATL defense: +0.086 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • ATL offense: +0.069 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • CHI offense: +0.036 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)
  • CHI defense: +0.124 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • ATL on 3 more days rest than CHI

Predicted Final Score

CHI 22
–
ATL 25
Projected margin: ATL by 3 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

CHI

N'Keal Harry WR Out Illness
Dane Cruikshank S Out Hamstring
Teven Jenkins T Questionable Hip
Al-Quadin Muhammad DE Questionable Knee
Kindle Vildor CB Questionable Ankle

ATL

Feleipe Franks TE Out Calf
Erik Harris S Questionable Foot
A.J. Terrell CB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CHI 24
–
ATL 27

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:46 TD ATL (9:46) 1-M.Mariota pass short left to 5-D.London for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN [57-J.Sanborn]. Penalty on CHI-9-J.Brisker, Defensive Holding, declined. CHI 0 – ATL 6
  • Q1 06:08 TD CHI (6:08) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep left to 11-D.Mooney for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 6 – ATL 7
  • Q2 07:47 FG CHI (7:47) 2-C.Santos 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill. CHI 10 – ATL 7
  • Q2 04:35 TD CHI (4:35) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields left end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 16 – ATL 7
  • Q2 04:31 TD ATL 2-C.Santos kicks 68 yards from CHI 35 to ATL -3. 84-C.Patterson for 103 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 17 – ATL 13
  • Q2 00:03 FG ATL (:03) 7-Y.Koo 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. CHI 17 – ATL 17
  • Q3 01:53 TD ATL (1:53) (Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota right tackle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI-6-K.Gordon was injured during the play. CHI 17 – ATL 23
  • Q4 08:20 TD CHI (8:20) 32-D.Montgomery left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 23 – ATL 24
  • Q4 01:52 FG ATL (1:52) 7-Y.Koo 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. CHI 24 – ATL 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 4 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (3:07) 13-B.Pinion punts 47 yards to CHI 16, Center-48-L.McCullough, fair catch by 18-D.Pettis.

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 6 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (:16) 16-T.Gill punts 40 yards to ATL 27, Center-48-P.Scales. 35-A.Williams to ATL 42 for 15 yards (84-R.Griffin). Chicago challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 16-T.Gill punts 40 yards to ATL 27, Center-48-P.Scales. 35-A.Williams to ATL 43 for 16 yards (84-R.Griffin, 36-D.Houston-Carson). FUMBLES (36-D.Houston-Carson), touched at ATL 40, RECOVERED by CHI-57-J.Sanborn at ATL 41.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 9 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (11:45) 13-B.Pinion punts 50 yards to CHI 30, Center-48-L.McCullough, fair catch by 18-D.Pettis.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 6 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 90%

    (7:47) 2-C.Santos 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 9 at the 38
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 64%

    (1:14) 2-C.Santos 56 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Crossbar, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 1 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 90%

    (:03) 7-Y.Koo 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (13:27) 16-T.Gill punts 41 yards to ATL 34, Center-48-P.Scales. 35-A.Williams to ATL 42 for 8 yards (39-J.Blackwell).

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 12 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 55%

    (10:52) 13-B.Pinion punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-48-L.McCullough, Touchback.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 2 at the 44 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 61% p(FG) 50%

    (3:30) (Shotgun) 84-C.Patterson right guard to CHI 38 for 6 yards (57-J.Sanborn).

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 7 at the 35 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 71%

    (1:52) 7-Y.Koo 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.