Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 10 at the 75

Chicago Bears 17 – Atlanta Falcons 17

(13:27) 16-T.Gill punts 41 yards to ATL 34, Center-48-P.Scales. 35-A.Williams to ATL 42 for 8 yards (39-J.Blackwell).

The Three Options

GO -2.11 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
62% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 75, worth -4.36 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model