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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 2 at the 44

Atlanta Falcons 24 – Chicago Bears 24

What Actually Happened

(3:30) (Shotgun) 84-C.Patterson right guard to CHI 38 for 6 yards (57-J.Sanborn).

The Three Options

GO +0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.57 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 44, worth -1.75 EP
KICK -0.10 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.10 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 12, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model