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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 9 at the 74

Pittsburgh Steelers 20 – Cincinnati Bengals 17

What Actually Happened

(13:38) 6-P.Harvin punts 48 yards to CIN 26, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 11-T.Taylor to CIN 30 for 4 yards (41-R.Spillane).

The Three Options

GO -1.99 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.95 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 74, worth -4.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 32, worth -1.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model