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CIN Away

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Zac Taylor
@
PIT Home

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
Sunday 2022-11-20 · 16:25 Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh US 🥶 Cold Spread -3.5 O/U 39.0

Win Probability

CIN
71.3%
PIT
28.7%
🥶 Cold

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CIN offense: +0.135 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • Kenny Pickett (PIT): -0.129 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • CIN on 7 more days rest than PIT
  • PIT defense: +0.073 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • PIT offense: -0.065 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CIN 25
–
PIT 17
Projected margin: CIN by 8 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

CIN

Ja'Marr Chase WR Out Hip
Dax Hill S Out Shoulder
Josh Tupou DT Out Calf
Chris Evans RB Questionable Knee
Tre Flowers CB Questionable Hamstring

PIT

Ahkello Witherspoon CB Out Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CIN 37
–
PIT 30

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 25 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:59 FG CIN (8:59) 2-E.McPherson 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-4-D.Chrisman. CIN 3 – PIT 0
  • Q1 04:41 FG PIT (4:41) 4-M.Wright 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. CIN 3 – PIT 3
  • Q1 00:48 TD CIN (:48) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 34-S.Perine for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 9 – PIT 3
  • Q2 13:04 TD PIT (13:04) 22-N.Harris left end for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 10 – PIT 9
  • Q2 06:46 TD CIN (6:46) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 34-S.Perine for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 16 – PIT 10
  • Q2 01:52 TD PIT (1:52) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass deep right to 14-G.Pickens for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-S.Hubbard]. CIN 17 – PIT 16
  • Q2 00:03 FG PIT (:03) 4-M.Wright 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. CIN 17 – PIT 20
  • Q3 07:07 TD CIN (7:07) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 16-T.Irwin for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 23 – PIT 20
  • Q3 04:32 FG PIT (4:32) 4-M.Wright 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. CIN 24 – PIT 23
  • Q3 00:36 FG CIN (:36) 2-E.McPherson 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-4-D.Chrisman. CIN 27 – PIT 23
  • Q4 04:35 TD CIN (4:35) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 34-S.Perine for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 33 – PIT 23
  • Q4 03:22 FG CIN (3:22) 2-E.McPherson 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-4-D.Chrisman. CIN 37 – PIT 23
  • Q4 00:47 TD PIT (:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 22-N.Harris up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 37 – PIT 29

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 8 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (13:09) 4-D.Chrisman punts 53 yards to PIT 7, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 82-S.Sims MUFFS catch, and recovers at PIT -5. 82-S.Sims to PIT 5 for 10 yards (33-T.Flowers).

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 3 at the 88
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (11:14) 6-P.Harvin punts 56 yards to CIN 32, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 11-T.Taylor pushed ob at CIN 43 for 11 yards (27-M.Allen).

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 1 at the 27
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.73 EP
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 81%

    (8:59) 2-E.McPherson 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-4-D.Chrisman.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 7 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 86%

    (4:41) 4-M.Wright 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (13:38) 6-P.Harvin punts 48 yards to CIN 26, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 11-T.Taylor to CIN 30 for 4 yards (41-R.Spillane).

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 16 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (11:55) 4-D.Chrisman punts 57 yards to PIT 3, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 82-S.Sims to PIT 9 for 6 yards (17-S.Morgan; 48-C.Adomitis).

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 4 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (10:15) 6-P.Harvin punts 39 yards to CIN 46, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 11-T.Taylor to CIN 46 for no gain. PENALTY on CIN-11-T.Taylor, Invalid Fair Catch Signal, 5 yards, enforced at CIN 46.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 4 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (5:38) 6-P.Harvin punts 54 yards to CIN 16, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 11-T.Taylor to CIN 23 for 7 yards (27-M.Allen).

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 4 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 94%

    (4:32) 4-M.Wright 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 13 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 61%

    (:36) 2-E.McPherson 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-4-D.Chrisman.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 13 at the 93
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (11:41) 4-D.Chrisman punts 40 yards to CIN 47, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 82-S.Sims.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 18 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 45%

    (9:39) 6-P.Harvin punts 35 yards to CIN 7, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 11-T.Taylor.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 9 at the 72 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.80 EP
    p(convert) 36%

    (3:42) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass incomplete short left to 88-P.Freiermuth [96-C.Sample].

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 8 at the 26 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 83%

    (3:22) 2-E.McPherson 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-4-D.Chrisman.