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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 16 at the 60

Cincinnati Bengals 17 – Pittsburgh Steelers 20

What Actually Happened

(11:55) 4-D.Chrisman punts 57 yards to PIT 3, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 82-S.Sims to PIT 9 for 6 yards (17-S.Morgan; 48-C.Adomitis).

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.04 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 60, worth -3.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 19, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model