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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 70

Pittsburgh Steelers 20 – Cincinnati Bengals 24

What Actually Happened

(5:38) 6-P.Harvin punts 54 yards to CIN 16, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 11-T.Taylor to CIN 23 for 7 yards (27-M.Allen).

The Three Options

GO -1.19 EP
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.68 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 70, worth -3.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 28, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model