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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 13 at the 93

Cincinnati Bengals 27 – Pittsburgh Steelers 23

What Actually Happened

(11:41) 4-D.Chrisman punts 40 yards to CIN 47, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 82-S.Sims.

The Three Options

GO -3.21 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.54 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 93, worth -5.42 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

PUNT -2.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 51, worth -2.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model