4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 27

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(8:59) 2-E.McPherson 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-4-D.Chrisman.

The Three Options

GO +2.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.17 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 27, worth -1.63 EP
KICK +0.72 EP
What Happened
  • 81% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.45 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 37, worth -2.42 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.73 EP