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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 8 at the 26

Cincinnati Bengals 34 – Pittsburgh Steelers 23

What Actually Happened

(3:22) 2-E.McPherson 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-4-D.Chrisman.

The Three Options

GO +0.14 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +3.24 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26, worth -1.65 EP
KICK +0.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.35 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.87 EP
PUNT -0.85 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model