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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 7 at the 24

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

What Actually Happened

(4:41) 4-M.Wright 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

The Three Options

GO +1.55 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +5.04 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24, worth -0.23 EP
KICK +2.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.66 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 34, worth -1.01 EP
PUNT +0.59 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model