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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 16 at the 38

Buffalo Bills 13 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(9:48) 2-T.Bass 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO -0.14 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.69 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 38, worth -1.99 EP
KICK +0.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 47, worth -2.72 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model