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Cleveland Browns

3-7 HC Kevin Stefanski
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Buffalo Bills

7-3 HC Sean McDermott
Sunday 2022-11-20 · 13:00 ET Ford Field, Detroit US 🏟 Dome Spread 7.5 O/U 50.5

Win Probability

CLE
43.1%
BUF
56.9%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • Neutral site — no home-field edge
  • BUF offense: +0.113 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • Josh Allen (BUF): +0.223 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • CLE offense: +0.066 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • CLE defense: +0.108 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

CLE 22 15–29
–
BUF 27 20–34
Projected margin: BUF by 5 Projected total: 49

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 11

CLE

D'Anthony Bell S Out Concussion
Michael Dunn G Out Back
Perrion Winfrey DT Out Concussion
Greg Newsome CB Out Concussion
David Njoku TE Questionable Ankle

BUF

Tremaine Edmunds LB Out Groin
Jake Kumerow WR Out Ankle
Gregory Rousseau DE Out Ankle
Kaiir Elam CB Questionable Ankle
Jordan Poyer S Questionable Elbow
Reggie Gilliam FB Questionable Illness

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CLE 23
–
BUF 31

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:08 TD CLE (9:08) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep right to 2-A.Cooper for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 6 – BUF 0
  • Q1 03:37 FG BUF (3:37) 2-T.Bass 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. CLE 7 – BUF 3
  • Q2 14:08 FG CLE (14:08) 3-C.York 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. CLE 10 – BUF 3
  • Q2 04:58 FG BUF (4:58) 2-T.Bass 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. CLE 10 – BUF 6
  • Q2 00:18 TD BUF (:18) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 14-S.Diggs for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 10 – BUF 12
  • Q3 09:48 FG BUF (9:48) 2-T.Bass 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. CLE 10 – BUF 16
  • Q3 04:11 TD BUF (4:11) 26-D.Singletary up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 10 – BUF 22
  • Q4 13:25 FG BUF (13:25) 2-T.Bass 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. CLE 10 – BUF 25
  • Q4 06:48 FG BUF (6:48) 2-T.Bass 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. CLE 10 – BUF 28
  • Q4 04:16 TD CLE (4:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 2-A.Cooper for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 16 – BUF 28
  • Q4 02:00 FG BUF (2:00) 2-T.Bass 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. CLE 16 – BUF 31
  • Q4 00:25 TD CLE (:25) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 11-D.Peoples-Jones for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 22 – BUF 31

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 3 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (7:32) 8-S.Martin punts 47 yards to CLE 11, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 11-D.Peoples-Jones.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 CLE 4th & 5 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (5:29) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 44 yards to BUF 40, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 20-N.Hines pushed ob at CLE 32 for 28 yards (51-J.Kunaszyk).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 BUF 4th & 2 at the 24
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 88%

    (3:37) 2-T.Bass 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CLE 4th & 14 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 96%

    (14:08) 3-C.York 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 BUF 4th & 13 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (11:57) 8-S.Martin punts 52 yards to CLE 20, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 11-D.Peoples-Jones. PENALTY on CLE-33-R.Harrison, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 20.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 BUF 4th & 14 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 93%

    (4:58) 2-T.Bass 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CLE 4th & 15 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 35%

    (2:01) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 28 yards to BUF 22, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 20-N.Hines.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 BUF 4th & 16 at the 38
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 64%

    (9:48) 2-T.Bass 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CLE 4th & 1 at the 27
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 85%

    (5:57) 7-J.Brissett up the middle to BUF 27 for no gain (55-C.Basham; 30-D.Jackson).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CLE 4th & 10 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 95%

    (1:41) 3-C.York 34 yard field goal is BLOCKED (92-D.Jones), Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 BUF 4th & 7 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 79%

    (13:25) 2-T.Bass 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CLE 4th & 17 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (12:06) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 55 yards to BUF 27, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 20-N.Hines to BUF 36 for 9 yards (51-J.Kunaszyk; 10-A.Schwartz).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 BUF 4th & 10 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 97%

    (6:48) 2-T.Bass 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CLE 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 48%

    (5:51) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 18-Dav.Bell pushed ob at CLE 36 for 6 yards (7-T.Johnson) [91-E.Oliver].

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 BUF 4th & 14 at the 21 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 91%

    (2:00) 2-T.Bass 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

    See the full breakdown →