Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 17 at the 82

Cleveland Browns 10 – Buffalo Bills 25

(12:06) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 55 yards to BUF 27, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 20-N.Hines to BUF 36 for 9 yards (51-J.Kunaszyk; 10-A.Schwartz).

The Three Options

GO -2.71 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.12 EP
70% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 82, worth -4.74 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model