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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 14 at the 14

Cleveland Browns 7 – Buffalo Bills 3

What Actually Happened

(14:08) 3-C.York 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +1.03 EP
  • 25% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.64 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 14, worth -0.52 EP
KICK +1.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24, worth -1.27 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model