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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 13 at the 72

Buffalo Bills 3 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(11:57) 8-S.Martin punts 52 yards to CLE 20, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 11-D.Peoples-Jones. PENALTY on CLE-33-R.Harrison, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 20.

The Three Options

GO -1.84 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.34 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 72, worth -4.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 30, worth -1.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model