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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 13 at the 35

Dallas Cowboys 10 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(5:36) 19-B.Maher 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.27 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 35, worth -1.78 EP
KICK +0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 45, worth -2.51 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model