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Dallas Cowboys

HC Mike McCarthy
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Minnesota Vikings

HC Kevin O'Connell
Sunday 2022-11-20 · 16:25 U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread -1.5 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

DAL
52.4%
MIN
47.6%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DAL offense: +0.064 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • DAL defense: -0.065 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • Kirk Cousins (MIN): +0.016 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

DAL 24
–
MIN 23
Projected margin: DAL by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

DAL

Bryan Anger P Questionable Illness
Quinton Bohanna DT Questionable Illness
Anthony Brown CB Questionable Concussion
Anthony Barr LB Questionable Hamstring
Ezekiel Elliott RB Questionable Knee
Demarcus Lawrence DE Questionable Foot

MIN

Akayleb Evans CB Out Concussion
Dalvin Tomlinson DT Out Calf
Za'Darius Smith DE Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DAL 40
–
MIN 3

Prediction missed by 36 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:25 FG DAL (10:25) 19-B.Maher 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 3 – MIN 0
  • Q1 06:42 FG MIN (6:42) 1-G.Joseph 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright. DAL 3 – MIN 3
  • Q1 01:31 TD DAL (1:31) 21-E.Elliott left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 9 – MIN 3
  • Q2 05:36 FG DAL (5:36) 19-B.Maher 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 13 – MIN 3
  • Q2 01:52 TD DAL (1:52) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 20-T.Pollard for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 19 – MIN 3
  • Q2 00:05 FG DAL (:05) 19-B.Maher 60 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 23 – MIN 3
  • Q3 12:43 TD DAL (12:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 20-T.Pollard for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 29 – MIN 3
  • Q3 08:18 TD DAL (8:18) 21-E.Elliott left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 36 – MIN 3
  • Q4 10:09 FG DAL (10:09) 19-B.Maher 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 40 – MIN 3

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 3 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 97%

    (10:25) 19-B.Maher 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 2 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 98%

    (6:42) 1-G.Joseph 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 9 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (13:36) 14-R.Wright punts 46 yards to DAL 13, Center-42-A.DePaola. 9-K.Turpin ran ob at DAL 17 for 4 yards (91-P.Jones).

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 13 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 71%

    (5:36) 19-B.Maher 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (4:34) 14-R.Wright punts 31 yards to DAL 41, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 15 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (6:19) 14-R.Wright punts 57 yards to DAL 18, Center-42-A.DePaola. 9-K.Turpin MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at DAL 19. PENALTY on MIN-29-K.Boyd, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at DAL 19.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 6 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (4:11) 5-B.Anger punts 48 yards to MIN 14, Center-45-M.Overton. 5-J.Reagor to MIN 17 for 3 yards (57-L.Gifford). FUMBLES (57-L.Gifford), touched at MIN 17, recovered by MIN-25-T.Jackson at MIN 17.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 10 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 77%

    (10:09) 19-B.Maher 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 2 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (8:23) 14-R.Wright punts 46 yards to DAL 10, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 3 at the 55 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (3:34) 5-B.Anger punts 53 yards to MIN 2, Center-45-M.Overton, downed by DAL-45-M.Overton.