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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 72

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Dallas Cowboys 13

What Actually Happened

(4:34) 14-R.Wright punts 31 yards to DAL 41, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

The Three Options

GO -1.67 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.75 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 72, worth -4.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 30, worth -1.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model