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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 3 at the 9

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(10:25) 19-B.Maher 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +2.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.42 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 9, worth -0.23 EP
KICK +1.56 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP