Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 15 at the 75

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Dallas Cowboys 37

What Actually Happened

(6:19) 14-R.Wright punts 57 yards to DAL 18, Center-42-A.DePaola. 9-K.Turpin MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at DAL 19. PENALTY on MIN-29-K.Boyd, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at DAL 19.

The Three Options

GO -2.50 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.86 EP
71% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 75, worth -4.31 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model