4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 6 at the 62

Dallas Cowboys 37 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(4:11) 5-B.Anger punts 48 yards to MIN 14, Center-45-M.Overton. 5-J.Reagor to MIN 17 for 3 yards (57-L.Gifford). FUMBLES (57-L.Gifford), touched at MIN 17, recovered by MIN-25-T.Jackson at MIN 17.

The Three Options

GO -0.85 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.34 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 62, worth -3.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 21, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model