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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 10 at the 32

Dallas Cowboys 37 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(10:09) 19-B.Maher 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +0.35 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.27 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 32, worth -1.48 EP
KICK +0.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 42, worth -1.98 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model