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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 56

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Dallas Cowboys 40

What Actually Happened

(8:23) 14-R.Wright punts 46 yards to DAL 10, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

The Three Options

GO +0.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.25 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 56, worth -2.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.69 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 17, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EP