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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 3 at the 55

Dallas Cowboys 40 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(3:34) 5-B.Anger punts 53 yards to MIN 2, Center-45-M.Overton, downed by DAL-45-M.Overton.

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +1.93 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 55, worth -2.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 16, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP