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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 4 at the 15

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:58) 7-H.Butker 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.92 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 15, worth -0.77 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25, worth -1.37 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP