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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
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Los Angeles Chargers

HC Brandon Staley
Sunday 2022-11-20 · 20:20 SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome Spread -5.5 O/U 52.5

Win Probability

KC
68.7%
LAC
31.3%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • KC offense: +0.195 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • Patrick Mahomes (KC): +0.307 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • LAC defense: +0.081 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • KC defense: +0.056 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

KC 28
–
LAC 22
Projected margin: KC by 6 Projected total: 50

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

KC

JuJu Smith-Schuster WR Out Concussion
Chris Lammons CB Out Concussion

LAC

Dustin Hopkins K Doubtful right Hamstring
Keenan Allen WR Questionable Hamstring
Gerald Everett TE Questionable Groin
Mike Williams WR Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

KC 30
–
LAC 27

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:58 FG KC (10:58) 7-H.Butker 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. KC 3 – LAC 0
  • Q1 09:42 TD LAC (9:42) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 5-J.Palmer for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 3 – LAC 6
  • Q1 06:03 FG KC (6:03) 7-H.Butker 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. KC 6 – LAC 7
  • Q1 02:39 FG LAC (2:39) 15-C.Dicker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. KC 6 – LAC 10
  • Q2 14:18 TD KC (14:18) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 87-T.Kelce for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 12 – LAC 10
  • Q2 03:35 TD LAC (3:35) (Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on KC-32-N.Bolton, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced between downs. KC 13 – LAC 16
  • Q2 00:17 FG LAC (:17) 15-C.Dicker 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. KC 13 – LAC 20
  • Q3 06:25 FG KC (6:25) 7-H.Butker 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. KC 16 – LAC 20
  • Q4 15:00 TD KC (15:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 22 – LAC 20
  • Q4 01:50 TD LAC (1:50) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 5-J.Palmer for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 23 – LAC 26
  • Q4 00:37 TD KC (:37) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 87-T.Kelce for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 29 – LAC 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 KC 4th & 4 at the 15
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 95%

    (10:58) 7-H.Butker 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

  • Q1 KC 4th & 7 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 73%

    (6:03) 7-H.Butker 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 5 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 84%

    (2:39) 15-C.Dicker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 20 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (11:42) 16-J.Scott punts 46 yards to KC 16, Center-47-J.Harris. 19-K.Toney to KC 21 for 5 yards (36-J.Taylor, 94-C.Rumph).

  • Q2 KC 4th & 3 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (10:41) 5-T.Townsend punts 42 yards to LAC 30, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 5 at the 89
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (2:49) 5-T.Townsend punts 50 yards to LAC 39, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 1-D.Carter.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 2 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 98%

    (:17) 15-C.Dicker 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 2 at the 11
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.33 EP
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 97%

    (6:25) 7-H.Butker 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (4:57) 16-J.Scott punts 52 yards to KC 14, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by LAC-40-Z.Horvath.