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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 7 at the 34

Kansas City Chiefs 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(6:03) 7-H.Butker 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +0.39 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +3.94 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 34, worth -2.06 EP
KICK +0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.63 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model