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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 67

Los Angeles Rams 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(13:04) 11-R.Dixon punts 56 yards to NO 11, Center-42-M.Orzech. 89-R.Shaheed ran ob at NO 23 for 12 yards (37-Q.Lake).

The Three Options

GO -0.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.35 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 67, worth -4.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.60 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 25, worth -1.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP